Survey about nuclear microreactors called into question
CASPER — Radiant Nuclear’s proposed manufacturing plant. The subject produces a cacophony from Bar Nunn residents.
Some Bar Nunn residents are staunchly against allowing Radiant to store nuclear waste near the town, while others in Natrona County see it as an economic opportunity.
Despite vocal opposition to parts of Radiant’s plans, the company plans to move forward, citing one fact: 70% of voters support the project, according to a poll conducted by Cygnal.
However, a poll is only as accurate and unbiased as the methodology, question wording and sample size, which begs the question: Was a poll paid for by the company seeking to move to Natrona County even accurate in the first place?
Background
Radiant Nuclear, founded by former Space X employee Doug Bernauer, plans to manufacture the first portable nuclear microreactors near Bar Nunn.
Pending approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Radiant hopes to build a 200,000- to 250,000 square-foot manufacturing space and a 30,000 square-foot facility for fueling and refueling.
This project has the potential to create 250 new jobs and expand infrastructure in Bar Nunn, a town with an estimated population of a little more than 3,000.
The technology designed by Radiant hasn’t been tested or approved yet, though a test is scheduled for 2026 at the Idaho National Laboratories.
The microreactors would use TRISO fuel, small ceramic-coated uranium pellets, considered less volatile than other fuel options. The microreactors would be sent to remote areas to generate power and would only be manufactured in Bar Nunn.
However, approximately every five years, Radiant has to collect spent nuclear fuel from the reactors, which they want to store near Bar Nunn at the manufacturing site.
Current Wyoming law dictates that spent nuclear fuel can only be stored at an operating reactor location, but since Radiant is seeking to manufacture reactors, not operate them, the company is seeking an amendment to allow for manufacturers to store spent nuclear fuel.
Survey methodology
Radiant hired Cygnal, a polling company to conduct a survey on public opinion of the company and the proposed manufacturing/waste storage facilities.
Chosen for its work with U.S. Rep Harriet Hageman, R-Wyoming, Cygnal sent text messages to between 1,200 and 1,300 people, asking them to complete the survey. Participants were asked a series of demographic questions based on age, gender, political beliefs and income level.
Then, groups of people whose responses fit the general election and U.S. census data of Natrona County were selected.
The 300 people out of those surveyed who fit the desired demographic were invited to complete the rest of the survey. Radiant declined to disclose the exact demographic selected for the survey.
It is unclear whether all the people surveyed are residents of Bar Nunn or simply live in Natrona County. Only 0.375% of all Natrona County residents were surveyed.
“The right scientific way to be able to do a survey like this is to do it based on a, ‘OK, like, here’s what the population looks like,’” said Ray Wert, Radiant’s vice president of marketing. “Let’s take a demographic slice of that population and make sure that we’re asking this survey to enough people who fit that demographic slice so that it’s representative of the entirety of the county.”
Cygnal conducted a probabilistic survey, but Radiant didn’t disclose the survey sampling method used.
According to the PEW Research Center, random sampling provides more representative data than other survey methods, which can introduce bias through the methods of locating certain demographics.
Radiant’s survey data included an error margin of plus or minus 5.64%.
Vague graph titles and redacted poll questions
The survey results sent out by Radiant feature three bar graphs with different colored bars. No key is included to indicate what the different colors mean.
The graphs are titled “Nuclear Safety,” “Nuclear Energy Production in the U.S.” and “Radiant Facility Opening.” No graphs indicate survey results for storing nuclear waste on county land near Bar Nunn.
The graph titles correspond to the themes of the questions in Radiant’s survey, but not to specific survey questions.
The first four poll questions focus on political beliefs, ranging from “Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in the election for Governor?” to “Generally speaking, would you say things in Wyoming are headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?”
All survey questions are multiple choice with between four to 12 answer choices depending on the questions.
Questions five through seven focus on nuclear energy in general, with questions such as “Which of the following best describe your view of nuclear energy as a power source?” Questions eight through 13 ask about public opinion of Radiant in general.
Radiant redacted questions 14 through 25 from the survey shown to the Star-Tribune, citing “competitive intelligence purposes.”
Question 26 asked about participants’ news sources.
Radiant didn’t release the raw data from the survey or indicate how many people selected each response option.
Other surveys and public opinion
In addition to the Radiant survey, state Rep. Bill Allemand, R-Midwest, conducted his own survey, which he cited during a town hall meeting he hosted on June 26.
Allemand claims 70% of respondents to his survey are against Radiant’s plans.
Allemand declined to disclose his survey results to the Star-Tribune. He just said it was a very large number and that he might release those results in September.
At that town hall meeting, Allemand asked for a show of hands from attendees as to whether they would support storing spent nuclear fuel “in their backyard.”
Sixty-percent voted against it, while 4 people, at least two of whom are employed by Radiant, voted in support of it.
At the meeting, 93.75% of attendees were opposed to Radiant storing nuclear waste in county land near Bar Nunn.
Public opinion is still divided on whether Natrona County is a good home for Radiant’s manufacturing and waste storage facilities.
“If I have poison — which this is, poison — I don’t want it in my backyard,” an Allemand town hall attendee said. “She [state Rep. Jayme Lien, R-Casper] said there’s no repository in the United States. Why is there no repository? Because no one wants poison. You think any of us want poison tonight?”
“I see it as a generational opportunity,” Justin Farley, the head of Advance Casper, said. “I would like to have my son and my son’s children have an opportunity to work in that industry. And I think it’s the future.”
This story was published on July 12, 2025.